Electric buses in Nepal: count the cost per passenger

A new electric bus is easy to photograph. A dependable morning service is harder to deliver. The vehicle needs energy, a driver, maintenance, somewhere to charge and enough operating margin to return for the next trip.

Nepal's EV conversation often centres on private-car sales. Public transport deserves a different measure. A bus or microbus can move many people in one vehicle, but its benefit depends on occupancy and reliable service rather than the electric badge alone.

The national target is a sales target

Nepal's NDC 3.0, submitted in May 2025, targets battery-electric shares of 70% and 90% of public passenger-vehicle sales in 2030 and 2035 respectively. The document makes financing conditions explicit. These are future sales ambitions, not a statement that those percentages of all buses already on the road are electric.

The difference between sales and fleet share matters. Existing diesel vehicles can remain in service after new purchases change. A route can also have an electric purchase without every scheduled trip being electrically operated.

Ask what has actually changed: registered vehicles, active vehicles, trips completed or passengers carried. Each count describes a different stage of the transition.

Calculate energy per passenger kilometre

Consider an invented electric-bus example using 100 kWh per 100 km, or 1 kWh per vehicle kilometre. At an average 30 passengers aboard, that is about 0.033 kWh per passenger kilometre before charging losses. At ten passengers it is 0.1 kWh.

Compare an illustrative electric car using 16 kWh per 100 km with an average two occupants. It uses 0.08 kWh per passenger kilometre before charging losses. Under these assumptions, the fuller bus uses less per passenger; the lightly occupied bus uses more.

These are arithmetic examples, not measurements of Nepal vehicles. They show why occupancy must appear in a comparison. A bus's higher energy per vehicle kilometre does not by itself establish that it is less efficient transport.

Passenger kilometres also need actual occupancy across the route, not just the maximum seating capacity. A full peak-hour segment and an empty return should both be included.

The route sets the charging requirement

Length, gradients, traffic, load and cabin demands affect daily energy. The operator must also count travel between the depot and the start of service. That distance consumes energy without carrying the intended passengers.

GGGI's January 2020 technical and investment study for Sajha Yatayat examines routes, charging regimes and depot feasibility. Its prices and fleet assumptions are historical. Its emphasis on connecting the route to the charging plan remains useful as a planning method, not a current operating claim.

Suppose a bus needs an assumed 200 kWh during the day. If charging efficiency is 90%, the supply delivers about 222 kWh. At an average 40 kW, that is about 5.6 hours of charging. At 80 kW, it is about 2.8 hours, before any additional interruptions or limits.

The overnight parking window may fit that requirement. The grid connection and simultaneous fleet load still need assessment. Ten buses do not each obtain the full station rating if the depot's total power is insufficient.

Reliability needs some spare capacity

A timetable that depends on every vehicle and charger working perfectly has little room for faults. Consider spare buses, charging alternatives, planned service time and recovery arrangements before calculating how many vehicles can operate.

A single disabled charger can affect several departures if the depot has no alternative. Track failed sessions and vehicle availability along with energy costs. A low price per unit does not compensate for passengers waiting without a service.

Drivers need training for the specific vehicle's controls, braking response and energy planning. Workshop staff need the correct diagnostics and high-voltage procedures. Maintenance is an operating requirement, not a line to remove because there is no engine oil.

Financing and fares operate on different clocks

A bus can save energy costs while carrying a large upfront financing burden. Fare revenue arrives through operations; loan payments and fixed costs remain due when the vehicle is out of service. A comparison needs depreciation or capital recovery, interest, maintenance, energy, staff and downtime.

Subsidies, grants or concessional finance should be identified separately. Do not describe a project as commercially profitable if its calculation quietly depends on support that a normal operator cannot obtain.

NEA's 2025/26 annual report provides transport electricity tariff categories and system data. Obtain a current connection offer for the depot rather than using a household bill or public retail charging rate as its energy assumption.

Passengers also need a usable vehicle

Entry steps, aisle space, accessible boarding arrangements, seating and clear information affect who can use the service. A technically efficient vehicle that is difficult for an older passenger to board is an incomplete public-transport solution.

Route information and predictable departure times matter too. A passenger deciding whether to leave a private vehicle at home needs confidence in the service, not only news of a new fleet purchase.

Report trips completed, passenger kilometres, energy per service kilometre, availability and the share of scheduled service actually delivered. Those measures can reveal whether electrification is improving transport.

A fleet announcement should be followed by service records. If the buses complete more scheduled trips and passengers can board them reliably, the improvement can be measured. If they sit waiting for a charger or a part, a high purchase count has not yet delivered the promised transport.